MD 0029 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL GULF STATES
Mesoscale Discussion 0029 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CST Tue Jan 03 2023 Areas affected...Central Gulf States Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 040145Z - 040315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convection is expected as the evening progresses, with it a risk of wind and perhaps a tornado or two. A new watch may be warranted. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer air mass is expected to gradually respond across the lower MS Valley due to an approaching short-wave trough over Texas. Low-level flow should become a bit more convergent which should encourage additional convective development and perhaps more robust updrafts. Over the last hour or so, a fair number of thunderstorms have matured from south-central LA into east-central MS. Several supercells are observed along this corridor and an upward tick in coverage/intensity may be noted as the evening progresses. Overall, scattered strong/severe thunderstorms should become more noteworthy prior to frontal passage. A new watch may be warranted to account for this risk. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 01/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33368894 34458732 33108640 31688832 33368894
