MD 0295 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 54… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0295
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Areas affected...portions of central Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...
Valid 212232Z - 220000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch #054.
Large hail, damaging gusts and tornadoes may accompany any mature
storm within the watch. A corridor of greater severe potential is
likely developing near Austin, TX and will progress northeast
through the remainder of the afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells, thunderstorm clusters, and linear
segments have developed across the western portions of Tornado Watch
#054 over the past couple of hours, with a history of tornadoes near
Jacksboro and Bowie Texas. Storms continue to develop ahead of a
Pacific front/dryline just west of the I-35 corridor, and are
advancing east into a buoyant airmass. These storms are also
progressing toward the axis of the low-level jet, where greater
moisture and low-level shear exist (per 22z mesoanalysis). 20Z RAP
forecast soundings (valid for 22-00Z) show large, curved hodographs
downshear of the ongoing storms). As such, tornado potential is
expected to increase through the remainder of the afternoon into the
evening hours.
Of particular concern are the supercells along a line from Burnet to
Guadalupe Counties, which are tracking in an thermodynamic
environment characterized by 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Given the storm mode
and aforementioned buoyancy/shear, a heightened tornado threat may
develop. Any supercell that becomes dominant/discrete (relatively
pristine inflow) will have the greatest risk for producing strong
tornadoes, and a long-lived, long-tracked tornado cannot be
completely ruled out.
..Squitieri.. 03/21/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...
LAT...LON 29789609 29399668 29049767 28979804 29099840 29239852
32659821 33549774 33799715 33849607 33399551 32239536
31419550 30509578 29789609
