MD 0331 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SC/NC/VA
Mesoscale Discussion 0331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022
Areas affected...portions of western SC/NC/VA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 240005Z - 240130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe storms are possible over the
next 1-3 hours across western SC/NC/VA. A tornado and isolated
strong gusts are the main hazards possible with this activity in the
short term.
DISCUSSION...Isolated convection has increased this evening from far
western SC into western NC. These cells are developing in a weakly
unstable environment with MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg amid strong
vertical shear. In the low-levels, mid 60s F dewpoints are
supporting around 100 J/kg 3 km MLCAPE. Favorable low-level
instability and shear will support rotating cells and a short term
tornado threat may persist for a couple of hours as these cells
track toward the northeast. Large-scale ascent across the region
will remain weak as a midlevel shortwave impulse spreads northward
toward VA/WV/PA. Weakening ascent couple with boundary-layer cooling
with loss of daytime heating should limit the eastward extent and
longevity of the threat. The area is being monitored for a small,
short-duration tornado watch.
..Leitman/Mosier.. 03/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 36848082 37038056 37118026 37098013 37007989 36797989
36378014 35958042 35158122 34718208 34588267 34588292
34658304 34808322 35288286 36168183 36848082
