MD 0348 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0348 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Areas affected...North-Central TX to Southwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 300325Z - 300500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually increase across the southern Plains into southwestern Missouri over the next several hours. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, though a brief tornado can not be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Strong large-scale forcing for ascent continues to overspread the southern Plains late this evening, per expanding mid-level cloud shield from the TX South Plains into northwestern OK. Convection that initiated near the dryline has advanced well ahead of the wind shift across OK with one supercell now moving into southern McClain County. This lead cell will approach the eastern edge of ww72 within the next hour. While the primary wind shift has yet to surge across western OK, it's not entirely clear how much additional convection will develop along the front, especially south of I-40. Primary corridor for frontal convection may continue from northern OK into western MO. With time this frontal activity should spread east of ww70 which will warrant a new watch immediately downstream, likely by 0430z. While the primary severe threat should remain wind, cooling aloft and weakening CINH will lead to profiles that will become more conducive for near-surface based convection. There is some concern that supercells that evolve later tonight could pose some brief tornado threat given the strong shear and lowering lifted parcel heights. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 03/30/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34109763 38269490 37609380 33499633 34109763
