MD 0351 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 74… FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS…FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA…WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Eastern Oklahoma...Western
and Central Arkansas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 74...
Valid 300957Z - 301200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 74 continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will
continue this morning across parts of the Arklatex and Ozarks. The
severe threat should impact areas to the east of the current watch
and new weather watch issuance will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large area of
rain with embedded thunderstorms ongoing from far southwest Missouri
across eastern Oklahoma and into northeast Texas. The airmass to the
east across the Arklatex and Ozarks is weakly unstable with MLCAPE
estimated by the RAP in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The airmass is
uncapped and a 50 to 65 knot low-level jet is analyzed near the Red
River in Northeast Texas. This low-level jet will continue to slowly
strengthen through day break, maintaining moisture advection and
increasing lift. This will support the convective line as it moves
eastward across the Arklatex and Ozarks over the next 3 to 4 hours.
In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport shows a looped hodograph
with 0-3 Km storm relative helicity near 675 m2/s2. As a result,
isolated supercells associated with wind damage and large hail will
be possible, and a brief tornado may occur. For this reason, a new
weather watch will likely be needed as most of the convective line
approaches the eastern edge of WW 74 over the next hour.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 03/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 36529340 36459392 36149442 35129498 33769582 32509662
31939666 31699634 31839547 32169404 32909312 34399236
36209183 36529340
