MD 0363 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 78… FOR SOUTHEAST LA…FAR SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Areas affected...southeast LA...far southern MS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 78...
Valid 302331Z - 310130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 78 continues.
SUMMARY...Monitoring for a downscale evolution from squall line to
supercell across southeast LA into far southern MS this evening. If
supercell development occurs and becomes sustained, the tornado risk
for southeast LA into far southern MS would likely be
heightened/most focused with any supercell.
DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a
mid-level dryslot punching into the lower MS Valley as a shortwave
trough becomes negatively tilted over the Arklatex. A 130 kt jet
250 mb streak centered over south TX will continue to move towards
the central Gulf Coast region this evening and become more favorable
for the evacuation of hydrometeors near updrafts, potentially
favoring more cellular modes versus linear.
Surface analysis indicates rich low-level moisture has inundated
southeast LA into the MS/AL gulf coast with 68-70 deg F dewpoints
observed at 6pm CDT. Greater buoyancy resides across southeast LA
into the coastal counties of southern MS/AL where 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE is indicated by 6pm RAP-based SPC objective analysis fields.
The combination of greater buoyancy and long hodographs will
probably favor some transition to from primarily linear to a mix of
linear and cellular modes. Higher echo tops noted per KLIX imagery
suggests this possible scenario could evolve over the next few
hours. The tornado risk will likely increase in tandem as the
evolution of storms transitions to more cellular. Damaging gusts
will also accompany the stronger storms.
..Smith.. 03/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29489126 29539123 30459061 30948990 30908878 30448856
29708971 29718979 29239116 29489126
