MD 0037 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CST Wed Jan 04 2023
Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 041810Z - 041945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm risk may increase this afternoon
across eastern North Carolina. Locally damaging gusts and a tornado
or two are possible. Trends will be monitored for a possible watch.
DISCUSSION...Regional VWPs show strong mid-level flow overspreading
eastern North Carolina this afternoon where a 40-50 kt low-level jet
is in place. Ongoing thunderstorms through central North Carolina
should continue tracking east-northeastward with mid-upper 60s
dewpoints ahead of this activity across the warm sector.
Additionally, diurnal heating is resulting in boundary layer
destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE), and the VWP from KRAX shows
strong low-level shear (near 40 kts 0-1 km bulk shear). These
conditions may result in continued organized thunderstorm activity
into parts of eastern North Carolina this afternoon. Primary hazards
will be damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. However, generally
weak forcing over the warm sector casts uncertainty on the severe
storm risk with eastward extent. Therefore, convective trends will
continue to be monitored for a possible watch this afternoon.
Additional thunderstorm activity is spreading northward over coastal
North Carolina, and some of these storms could become strong to
severe, as well.
..Supinie/Weinman/Hart.. 01/04/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 35827854 36097827 36487750 36527686 36247624 36057610
35957609 35407611 34967621 34557646 34397735 34787805
35197855 35547862 35827854
