MD 0375 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 85… FOR PARTS OF EASTERN GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Areas affected...Parts of eastern Georgia into the Carolina
Concerning...Tornado Watch 85...
Valid 311543Z - 311715Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 85 continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered vigorous thunderstorm
development, including the risk for supercells capable of producing
tornadoes, appears increasing probable through 2-4 PM EDT. Trends
are being monitored for the possibility that this may require a new
severe weather watch.
DISCUSSION...With the pre-frontal plume of higher precipitable water
content, which is generally aligned with the strong southerly
low-level jet (including 50-60 kt around 850 mb), remnant
convectively generated cloud cover and precipitation is widespread.
However, breaks/thin spots in the overcast are allowing for weak
destabilization of the moistening boundary, and this appears to be
contributing to at least some intensification of embedded deeper
convection. Most notably, currently, this includes an organizing
cell to the west of Waycross GA, but similar intensification may be
underway across the Piedmont of South Carolina. With increasing
breaks in the cloud cover probable into early afternoon, these
trends may continue.
Model forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs near the
strong 850 jet axis are in the process of becoming characterized by
increasing clockwise curvature, conducive to the evolution of
supercells with increasing risk to produce tornadoes. While these
may remain isolated to widely scattered due to the limited
instability, a new severe weather watch may be needed within the
next couple of hours.
..Kerr.. 03/31/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31598323 32928260 34548181 35618094 36147961 35927890
34777924 33918004 31378173 30858299 31598323
