MD 0377 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 86… FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern North Carolina into
southeastern Virginia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 86...
Valid 311811Z - 312015Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues.
SUMMARY...Organizing thunderstorm development possible through late
afternoon, perhaps including a supercell or small evolving cluster
with the potential to produce a couple of tornadoes and/or damaging
wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...An area of persistent stronger convective development,
currently near Southern Pines NC, may be supported by forcing
associated with a mid-level speed maximum nosing across and
northeast of the Piedmont. Breaks/thin spots in cloud cover across
the Piedmont into coastal plain continue to allow for weak
destabilization of a moistening boundary, and if the mid-level
forcing for ascent is maintained, inhibition associated with warm
layers aloft may weaken sufficiently to support substantive further
intensification during the next few hours. This still appears to
generally coincide with the axis of 50-60 kt southerly 850 mb flow,
and forecast soundings near the mid-level speed maximum still
exhibit clockwise curved low-level hodographs becoming maximized.
It is possible that this may provide the primary focus for
organizing thunderstorms development, possibly including a supercell
or two with the potential to produce tornadoes.
..Kerr.. 03/31/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...CAE...
LAT...LON 35497981 36667801 36127749 34687929 34428017 34568042
35497981
