MD 0383 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87…89… FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0843 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87...89...
Valid 010143Z - 010315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 87, 89
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging winds will persist
through about 03z, and then diminish by 04z.
DISCUSSION...A pre-frontal band of convection, with some embedded
bowing segments, will likely persist for another 1-2 hours across NJ
and vicinity, before diminishing near the expiration time of watch
89 at 04z. Despite the loss of insolation, low-level moisture
advection from the south will support modest increases in buoyancy
as low 60s dewpoints spread northward across NJ. The
moistening/weak destabilization will occur in a strongly sheared
environment per local VWPs, with largely line-parallel shear of
40-50 kt in the lowest km above ground level. This convection
appears to be coincident with a lead mid-upper speed max, and
low-level flow is expected to veer in the next 2 hours and weaken
with passage of this speed max aloft. In the interim, isolated
damaging gusts will still be possible given the high-momentum (50-60
kt) southwesterly low-level flow and modest downdraft potential
along the line (a little increase in DCAPE this evening).
Farther west, a few storms have recently intensified near the
synoptic cold front and in association with the speed max aloft,
near the south central PA border. Some weak destabilization in the
wake of the pre-frontal band could support a localized wind threat
for 1-2 hours from south central into southeast PA.
..Thompson.. 04/01/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 40507392 39757472 39147631 39217639 39487648 39577735
39727766 40067740 40407610 40607501 40977437 41427388
41357366 40507392
