MD 0384 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0384 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022 Areas affected...Parts of southern Florida Atlantic coastal areas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011848Z - 012115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong storms appear possible across Atlantic coastal hours, mostly north of Miami, near the Palm Beach area, by 4-5 PM EDT. These may pose a risk for producing localized, potentially damaging, surface gusts. DISCUSSION...Outflow from persistent convection near a weak surface cold front has advanced south of the Vero Beach and Avon Park vicinities. To the south of this boundary, the seasonably moist boundary layer has become increasingly well mixed with continuing insolation, and temperatures warming into the upper 80s have contributed to moderately large CAPE. Near surface flow is generally light and southwesterly to westerly, with low-level confluence and convergence becoming focused inland of far southeastern coastal areas into the Palm Beach vicinity, where mixed-layer CAPE may be maximized around 2000 J/kg. This appears to be just ahead of a subtle/low amplitude perturbation (perhaps convectively generated), which has migrated inland to the north of Fort Myers and may reach Atlantic coastal areas near/north of Palm Beach by 20-21Z. Associated forcing for ascent may contribute to enhancement of scattered thunderstorm development now beginning to initiate in the unstable environment. Any substantive upscale convective growth may take place largely offshore. However, at least isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development appears possible near coastal areas, in the presence of modest deep-layer shear. These may pose at least some risk for small hail. And latent cooling due to melting and evaporation, coupled with heavy precipitation loading, may contribute to a strong downburst or two with locally strong surface gusts, before shifting offshore. ..Kerr/Grams.. 04/01/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... LAT...LON 27848043 27817943 26457992 26468044 27288067 27848043
