MD 0386 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN…CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0386
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023
Areas affected...Southern...Central and Eastern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 310012Z - 310215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat will likely develop this evening
as cells increase in coverage across southern and eastern Nebraska.
This activity will remain mostly elevated, and weather watch
issuance appears unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, isolated thunderstorms have
initiated over southern Nebraska, about 60 statute miles to the
east-southeast of North Platte. According to surface analysis, this
convection is located just to the northwest of a quasi-stationary
front. The convection is also located to the north-northeast of a
center of instability, where the RAP has MUCAPE estimated near 1000
J/kg. The WSR-88D VWP at Hastings shows substantial speed shear in
the lower to mid-levels, which is contributing to deep-layer shear
near 60 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to
8.0 C/km, will be favorable for hail. This will especially occur as
convective coverage and warm advection increase later this evening.
The cells should remain elevated, on the cool side of the front,
with any severe threat being marginal.
..Broyles/Edwards.. 03/31/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 41409700 40999802 40679869 40299953 40150006 40420043
40880033 41599908 42169680 41759633 41409700
