MD 0396 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023
Areas affected...Northeast TX into southeast OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 311816Z - 311945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms capable of hail, damaging gusts, and a couple of
tornadoes are possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing along a cold
front/effective dryline from northeast TX into southeast OK. Strong
heating of a moist low-level environment has resulted in MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg across the region, with effective shear of 50-70 kt
more than sufficient for organized storm structures. Storm coverage
across this region remains uncertain, with stronger large-scale
ascent expected to remain north of the region, but a few supercells
are likely to develop later this afternoon.
Large hail and locally strong/damaging gusts are expected to be the
primary initial threat, but low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient
to support a threat of a couple tornadoes as well, even with surface
winds likely remaining somewhat veered. Watch issuance is likely
later this afternoon in order to cover these threats.
..Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 35049514 35339497 35209468 34409469 33299482 31619606
31169694 30949780 30929845 31089834 31419789 31729745
34389571 35049514
