MD 0416 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN TEXAS…CENTRAL LOUISIANA…AND FAR WESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023
Areas affected...far eastern Texas...central Louisiana...and far
western Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 010042Z - 010245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Downstream Tornado Watch likely in the next hour.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of semi-discrete supercells is advancing out
of east-central Texas into Louisiana. These storms have a history of
severe hail, including a report of hail up to 1.75". VAD profiles
from KPOE and KSHV in Ft. Polk, LA and Shreveport, LA have analyzed
0-2 km SRH around 200 m2/s2. Given this low-level shear, these
storms will continue to pose a threat of severe hail and a few
tornadoes. Further development is expected downstream into central
Louisiana and western Mississippi through the evening. Wind profiles
become increasingly favorable with downstream extent into western
Mississippi. The VAD profile at KDGX (Brandon, MS) has observed 0-1
SRH around 300 m2/s2. Given the improving low-level shear, expect
potential for tornadoes to increase over the next few hours.
..Thornton/Edwards.. 04/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31449396 31889369 32389293 33479166 34089091 34289055
34219019 34068995 33858967 32978990 32319040 31119162
30719191 30459226 30319271 30289324 30359375 30839388
31449396
