MD 0042 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA…WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0042 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2023 Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma...Western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120130Z - 120330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may increase in areal coverage as the evening progresses. Hail and wind are the primary risks. DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/diagnostic data suggest an upper low has advanced to near DDC in southwest KS. Short-wave trough extends south across western OK, and this feature is advancing east toward the lower MS Valley, in line with earlier model guidance. This system is very dynamic and 120m, 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to spread downstream later this evening. 00z sounding from OUN exhibited very steep lapse rates through 6km with backing at mid levels observed, suggesting the leading edge of strong forcing has advanced into eastern OK. Over the last hour, a lone thunderstorm had developed over southeast OK, near Pushmataha/Latimer County. This storm is developing along the northern gradient of higher surface dew points, along the eastern edge of steepest lapse rate plume. There is increasing concern this activity may continue to mature and possibly expand in areal coverage due to the approaching short wave and gradual increase in moisture/buoyancy. At this time the initial activity is likely a bit elevated; however, increasing moisture downstream may allow convective bases to lower and become near-surface-based by late evening. In the short term, some hail may be noted with elevated storms as they mature and spread into western AR. ..Darrow/Hart.. 01/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA... LAT...LON 34719552 35829399 35489276 34319320 34219519 34719552
