MD 0429 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA…SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023
Areas affected...portions of southeastern Alabama...southern Georgia
and southwestern South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 011655Z - 011900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential may increase early this
afternoon across southern GA/AL into western SC. Damaging winds will
remain the primary threat but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Storm coverage and the need for a watch is somewhat uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Midday visible imagery showed mostly clear skies ahead
of a band of developing pre-frontal convection from southeastern AL,
southern GA and into western SC. Ample daytime heating of a
relatively moist airmass (63-66 F surface dewpoints) was
contributing to gradual destabilization across the region. Area
model soundings show around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE through the
afternoon which should support current thunderstorms as they move
east. Elongated, hodographs with moderate speed shear (40+ kt)
should allow for organized short line segments and perhaps some
supercell structures. However, low-level flow is strongly veered
suggesting the primary severe risk will be damaging winds though a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
Hi-res guidance and observation trends suggest storms may take some
time to organize given the modest lapse rates and weak overall
forcing for ascent. It remains unclear if a weather watch is
warranted given the uncertainty with storm coverage and overall
severe risk. However, the greatest confidence some risk is across
portions of southern GA where buoyancy and shear are best
overlapped.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 04/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 31878112 31348145 31038200 30808425 30928532 31028557
31208566 31508568 31758559 32158477 32628347 33178152
33148108 32868081 32468069 32058088 31878112
