MD 0434 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN CONNECTICUT…MASSACHUSETTS…RHODE ISLAND…AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 0434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023
Areas affected...Eastern Connecticut...Massachusetts...Rhode
Island...and southern New Hampshire
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012218Z - 012315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Localized damaging wind threat may persist. A downstream
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently moving across New York and
Pennsylvania has shown signs of weakening over the last hour. These
storms are moving into a more favorable environment across the East
Coast, where daytime heating has allowed for SBCAPE around 500 J/kg.
Mid-level cooling will continue to allow further destabilization
over the next couple of hours as the trough approaches from the
west. VAD profiles from Albany (KENX) show deep layer shear around
25-30 kts. As storms move into this environment slight
intensification will be possible, along with additional development
ahead of the main line. Given the wind profiles, a marginal damaging
wind risk is possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is unlikely.
..Thornton/Hart.. 04/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 42717279 42947243 42987192 42917133 42727073 41987062
41567084 41137112 41067192 41147210 41277217 41377253
41647275 42087286 42717279
