MD 0443 CONCERNING 01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL
Mesoscale Discussion 0443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023
Areas affected...Southern portions of LA/MS/AL
Concerning...01Z Outlook upgrade
Valid 030319Z - 030815Z
SUMMARY...Portions of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi into
southwest Alabama should be considered upgraded from the 01z
Convective Outlook, with a Marginal Risk at the coast and a Slight
Risk over interior areas (see graphic). This is related to
tornado/thunderstorm wind damage potential through the 12z time
frame (and potentially beyond).
DISCUSSION...Concern has increased for the potential, at least on an
isolated/conditional basis, for severe storms overnight across
portions of southeast Louisiana/southern Mississippi and into
southwest Alabama by the predawn hours of Monday. Steady low-level
moistening is expected to occur across the region through the
late-night/early morning hours in tandem with a northward-shifting
warm front. A convectively augmented mid-level vort max will
continue to shift eastward from the ArkLaTex toward the Tennessee
Valley Monday morning, with increasing ascent and strengthening
deep-layer winds progressively influencing the region overnight.
A somewhat separate mesoscale branch of increasingly strong 850
mb/1-2km AGL winds should overspread the region, resulting in
elongating low-level hodographs. Strong/severe storms currently over
northern Louisiana may persist east-southeastward overnight.
Additional storms may develop/increase, at least on a widely
scattered basis, within a near-coastal low-level confluence regime.
With this potential, the expected environmental trends causes
concern for the possibility of supercells, which may include tornado
potential, a bit farther south/southeast that previously thought.
Recent HRRR runs and 00z guidance such as the NSSL-WRF lend credence
to this potential.
..Guyer.. 04/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 32729011 32198806 31718751 30528761 30228793 29698951
29809035 30559144 31049164 31509122 32089100 32559053
32729011
