MD 0462 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0462
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023
Areas affected...Northeastern Kansas and west central Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 042241Z - 042345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Damaging wind and large hail threat increasing. A watch
will be needed within the next hour.
DISCUSSION...A surface cold front located across central Kansas will
phase with the dry line this evening as a focus for new storm
development as the upper level wave advances into the Northern and
Central Plains. Expected broken multi-cellular lines eventually
transitioning to become more a more organized line as the front
advances eastward with time and forcing for ascent increases. The
20z sounding from TOP shows SBCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Deep layer
shear at 0-6 km is around 70 kts. Soundings profiles are
characterized by an inverted V, with low-level moisture is lacking
with dew points around 60 F with temperatures in the mid to upper
80s. Given this environment, the main threats will likely be large
hail and damaging wind. Steep low level lapse rates and 0-1 km SRH
around 200-300 m2/s2 would support some risk of a tornado or two. A
watch will be needed within the next hour.
..Thornton/Thompson.. 04/04/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 37989412 38409391 38789382 39379398 39689455 39899470
40359522 40569561 40399595 40019623 39449650 38939661
38519635 38229614 38099568 38049491 38039462 37989412
