MD 0472 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 116…118… FOR SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS…NORTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0472
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2023
Areas affected...Southeast/East-Central KS...North-Central OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 116...118...
Valid 050433Z - 050600Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 116, 118
continues.
SUMMARY...Frontal convection should gradually increase over the next
few hours. Wind/hail threat continues.
DISCUSSION...Surface front is surging south across the central
Plains, currently extending from near Kansas City, southwest into
north-central OK. Moisture has increased markedly into the trailing
boundary over north-central OK where surface dew points have risen
into the mid 60s. Convection has gradually increased atop the
surging frontal zone where MUCAPE values are likely approaching 3000
J/kg. 850mb flow has veered considerably ahead of the front so much
of the convection should remain a bit elevated. Even so, hail/wind
threat may increase along a corridor from east-central KS into
north-central OK over the next few hours. It's not entirely clear
how far south thunderstorms will develop, but it's possible robust
convection could spread into portions of central OK before
significant post-frontal drying overspreads this region.
..Darrow.. 04/05/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36469797 37619670 38729574 38419476 37299557 36179756
36469797
