MD 0476 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL…FAR NORTHWEST IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023
Areas affected...central and northern IL...far northwest IN
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 050827Z - 051000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will probably spread into
central and northern IL from the west. A new severe thunderstorm
watch will likely be needed over IL.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a gradual intensification of storms
near and behind the cold front draped from southeast IA and arcing
south-southwestward into central MO. The airmass ahead of this
thunderstorm activity is moist/unstable with mostly lower 70s deg F
temperatures and lower 60s dewpoints. Around 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE
is objectively analyzed with the SPC Mesoanalysis data. Although
large-scale upper forcing for ascent will glance the region, the
frontal forcing will act to aid storm development as the
thunderstorms move generally east-northeast into IL early this
morning. Isolated large hail and localized damaging gusts are
possible with the stronger storms.
..Smith/Edwards.. 04/05/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
LAT...LON 38698887 38468952 38689062 39249121 39899136 41898964
42208896 42258819 42098747 41598701 41088699 38698887
