MD 0479 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST IL…SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0519 AM CDT Wed Apr 05 2023
Areas affected...southeast IL...southwest into central IN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 051019Z - 051145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms primarily
capable of damaging gusts (55-70 mph) are possible this morning.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a linear cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms over southern IL early this morning and embedded
within a 60-kt LLJ. Surface observations over southwest into
central IN indicate temperatures are in the low-mid 70s degree F and
dewpoints are in the lower 60s. KMDH (Carbondale/Murphysboro, IL
ASOS) recently observed a 58-kt gust at 0945 UTC. The VADs at KVWX
and KIND show very strong southwesterly 0.5-2.0 km AGL flow (50-65
kt). RAP forecast soundings over the discussion area show around
1000 J/kg MUCAPE. The sufficient buoyancy and strength of the
low-level flow will probably support a continued risk for damaging
gusts into southeast IL/southwest IN and perhaps as far north into
central IN later this morning.
..Smith/Edwards.. 04/05/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...
LAT...LON 38088726 38068764 38268818 38638828 40408668 40558594
40308533 39688530 38088726
