MD 0499 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0499
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Sun Apr 09 2023
Areas affected...parts of the Texas Panhandle into southwest
Oklahoma and northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 091820Z - 092145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form after 20Z, and a few
storms may produce hail over 1.00" diameter and locally strong wind
gusts.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows strong heating over the
panhandles and into much of the South Plains and northwest TX, the
exception being the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK in
association with a batch of showers and cirrus. CU is beginning to
form within the surface trough from eastern NM into the TX
Panhandle, with weak wind convergence.
GPS PW sensors show a plume of 0.80-0.90" PWAT from northwest TX
into the eastern TX Panhandle and South Plains, where dewpoints
remain in the 50s F. The cold midlevel trough is currently over the
area, which when combined with heating, continues to steepen lapse
rates.
Scattered storms are expected to form both along the weak
convergence zone and farther east into the moist plume, where
differential heating near the outflow/clouds exists. The steep lapse
rates and sufficient deep-layer shear will favor a few storms
producing hail around 1.00-1.50" diameter, especially later in the
day. Mixed storm modes are expected, with locally strong wind gusts
with the outflows as well.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/09/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 35249935 34619936 33989952 33639978 33450029 33460097
33930147 34600195 35420199 35850150 36300095 36460039
36149982 35899954 35249935
