MD 0005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL OK…NORTHEAST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX…FAR SOUTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST AR…AND SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2023
Areas affected...Parts of east-central OK...northeast/north-central
TX...far southeast KS...northwest AR...and southwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 022002Z - 022200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of all hazards including
tornadoes is increasing, and a tornado watch is likely this
afternoon for much of the area.
DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar data shows a gradual increase in
showers and isolated thunderstorms from east-central OK southward
into parts of northeast TX this afternoon. This activity is
developing along the western edge of the warm sector, where
middle/upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints are in place. Water vapor
loops show strengthening midlevel ascent overspreading this portion
of the warm sector, and cloud breaks are favoring modest
boundary-layer heating/destabilization. The 18Z observed FWD/OUN
soundings showed weakening convective inhibition at the base of a
pronounced EML, which coupled with the increasing large-scale ascent
and boundary-layer heating, should support additional thunderstorm
development during the next few hours.
Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the destabilizing boundary-layer
will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over the warm sector. This
moderate instability, combined with 45-55 kt of effective shear and
clockwise-turning low-level hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH)
should initially support discrete or semi-discrete supercells
capable of all hazards including tornadoes. These storms will
generally track northeastward across the expansive warm sector, with
some tendency for local upscale growth with time. A tornado watch
issuance is likely for portions of the area this afternoon.
..Weinman/Hart.. 01/02/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 36269714 36889677 37159634 37269549 37229459 37009406
36569360 35949342 35089399 33059530 32849622 32939707
33519767 34809766 35659744 36269714
