MD 0504 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FL AND THE FL KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Wed Apr 12 2023
Areas affected...Portions of southern FL and the FL Keys
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121908Z - 122115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across portions of
southern FL and the Keys this afternoon. The overall risk appears
too localized for a watch.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KAMX/TMIA shows a slight uptick
in convective organization over the last hour, with several
low-topped supercell structures spreading northward across southern
FL, the Keys, and near-shore waters. This activity is generally
focused along an east-west-oriented warm front, where filtered
diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints is yielding surface-based
inflow for recent storms. Given around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH (per AMX
VWP data) and the surface-based inflow for ongoing shallow
supercells, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/12/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 25988090 25958135 25788144 25008111 24728092 24848055
25578006 26197995 26388009 26308039 26098052 25988090
