MD 0505 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023
Areas affected...FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 131010Z - 131245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The risk for tornadic mini supercells will probably
develop as updrafts move ashore this morning. The timing for a
possible watch is still uncertain. The supercell threat will likely
focus over Gulf, Bay, and Walton counties initially.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows a north-south band of
low-topped storms arcing from near Panama City Beach to south of
Apalachicola early this morning. A surface low is analyzed to the
south of the AL/FL Panhandle border over the continental shelf. A
warm/maritime front is slowly advancing northward and is draped
generally west-east. Near and south of the boundary, surface
dewpoints are in the 68-70 deg F range with drier air currently over
the FL Panhandle (60 deg F inland to near 65 at the beaches). As
the warm front penetrates the beaches and coastal plain this
morning, the development of surface-based buoyancy (500-1000 J/kg
SBCAPE) collocated with with enlarged low-level hodographs
(reference KTLH and KEVX VAD data), the stronger updrafts moving
ashore will probably acquire low-level mesocyclone-strength rotation
and may pose an isolated tornado risk. Convective trends will be
monitored for a possible tornado watch, although timing of a watch
is still uncertain.
..Smith/Edwards.. 04/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30188697 30678696 30818384 29708335 29658411 29328530
29958592 30188697
