MD 0051 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 17… FOR WEST-CENTRAL AL…FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023
Areas affected...west-central AL...far east-central MS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...
Valid 121554Z - 121730Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.
SUMMARY...Most favorable mesoscale environment for supercells and a
tornado risk is focused near the MS/AL border and into west-central
AL through 1130am CST.
DISCUSSION...Subjective mesoscale analysis shows temperatures
warming into the lower 70s over west-central AL to the east of a
broken band of storms with several quasi-discrete updrafts. Surface
dewpoints are in the lower 60s and RAP forecast soundings indicate
around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE when modifying for current surface
observations. Long hodographs will continue to promote a
supercellular storm mode. In addition, around 200-250 m2/s2 0-0.5
km effective SRH is indicated. Given this overlap of
buoyancy/shear, it appears the most favorable mesoscale environment
will be focused over west-central AL over the next 1-2 hours. A
tornado risk will continue with any robust supercell.
..Smith.. 01/12/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...
LAT...LON 32058811 32088842 32278864 32468863 32898805 33098730
32988701 32688698 32498712 32058811
