MD 0511 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 0511
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2023
Areas affected...portions of central Nebraska into western Kansas
and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132213Z - 140045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts or an instance of large hail may
accompany any of the stronger storms that can develop. The severe
threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A mix of agitated cumulus and low-topped convection
continues to percolate along surface lee trough, where the diurnal
heating of a dry boundary layer is contributing to robust low-level
mixing. Up to this point, convection has struggled to intensify.
Nonetheless, low-level lapse rates up to 10 C/km (per 21Z
mesoanalysis) would support ample evaporative cooling and associated
downward momentum transport with any stronger cells that can
develop. Steep mid-level lapse rates may also encourage an instance
or two of large hail. Furthermore, strong evaporative cooling could
also lead to efficient cold pool production/mergers which would only
increase the chances for severe gusts. Around 40 F surface dewpoints
exist across central Nebraska, coinciding with slightly stronger
mid-level flow and associated deep-layer shear, where there is a
relatively greater chance of storm organization into the evening
hours. The overall severe threat should temper with nocturnal
cooling. The severe threat is also expected to remain sparse, and a
WW issuance is unlikely.
..Squitieri/Bunting.. 04/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34500217 37580185 41290100 42900032 43009989 42919947
41869930 39369991 37060022 35260093 34620125 34500217
