MD 0514 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0514
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Areas affected...Southeastern Colorado into southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141957Z - 142100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms with isolated risk of damaging wind and hail
possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21-22z across
southeastern Colorado and far southwestern Kansas, with the
potential for damaging winds and hail. Surface objective analysis
shows destabilization ongoing this afternoon, with around 500 J/kg
of MUCAPE across southeastern CO and southwestern KS. Visible
satellite confirms this trend as deepening cumulus towers have been
observed across southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas over
the last hour. RAP forecast soundings exhibit an inverted V profile,
with drying below 600 mb suggestive of high-based convection and
potential for damaging winds. VAD profiles from KPUX (Pueblo, CO)
observe deep layer shear around 40 kts with a largely linear
hodograph supporting potential for severe hail. Damaging wind and
hail risk is expected to be isolated, precluding the need for a
watch.
..Thornton/Leitman.. 04/14/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37510406 38280374 38460310 38450249 38340168 38000091
37190092 36950099 36790115 36750171 36920258 36950306
37020365 37130395 37510406
