MD 0517 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136… FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KS…NORTHWEST OK…SOUTHEAST NE…EXTREME SOUTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0517
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Areas affected...Central/eastern KS...Northwest OK...Southeast
NE...Extreme southwest IA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136...
Valid 142335Z - 150100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail and wind continues across WW
136. Storms will continue to develop along the cold front, as a
separate thunderstorm cluster moves toward northeast Kansas.
DISCUSSION...At 2330 UTC, a thunderstorm cluster is moving toward
northeast KS, with other strong thunderstorms gradually increasing
in coverage along a cold front from southeast NE into central KS and
far northwest OK. The easternmost cluster has produced several
1-inch hail reports, though some weakening has noted over the last
30 minutes as it moves into a region characterized by rather strong
MLCINH. Even if this cluster continues to gradually weaken, steep
midlevel lapse rates will continue support a hail threat, and
localized severe gusts will be possible within the rather warm and
deeply mixed boundary layer across the region. Some severe threat
may spread east of WW 136, and local watch expansion may be
required, but additional downstream watch issuance appears unlikely
at this time.
To the north and west, frontal storms are expected to continue
intensifying early this evening, within an environment characterized
by steep low/midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and sufficient
effective shear (30-40 kt) for organized convection. The initial
somewhat discrete cells will be capable of producing large hail,
with localized instances of golf ball or larger sized hail possible.
Eventually, with deep-layer shear vectors generally parallel to the
front, storm mergers will result in some upscale growth, with
residual deeply mixed boundary layers across the warm sector and
increasing low-level flow supporting a severe-wind threat through
much of the evening.
..Dean/Bunting.. 04/14/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 36749962 37159924 38609847 39969825 40409779 41459605
41519547 40999532 40529576 39509516 38849515 38199550
37699593 37089644 36829768 36669854 36589912 36749962
