MD 0518 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 136… FOR CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST OK…SOUTHEAST NE…SOUTHWEST IA…EXTREME NORTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0904 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023
Areas affected...Central/northeast KS...Northwest OK...Southeast
NE...Southwest IA...Extreme northwest MO
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136...
Valid 150204Z - 150330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 136
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for sporadic hail and severe gusts continues
this evening. A gradual weakening trend is expected later tonight.
DISCUSSION...Storms from southwest IA into southeast NE and central
KS have largely consolidated into loosely organized lines/clusters
near the cold front this evening. This trend has resulted in an
increasing threat of locally severe/damaging gusts, as noted with a
67 mph gust at Offutt AFB, and other reports of damaging wind across
southeast NE. The primarily linear convective mode and increasing
low-level flow associated with a southerly low-level jet (as noted
in recent VWPs from ICT/TOP) will continue to support a threat of
sporadic severe gusts into late evening, in association with any
stronger clusters and/or bowing segments. Steep midlevel lapse rates
and moderate buoyancy (as noted in the 00Z TOP sounding) will also
continue to support isolated severe hail with the strongest
updrafts.
While the low-level jet will continue to strengthen with time,
increasing near-surface stability associated with nocturnal cooling
and an eventual decrease in buoyancy with northeastward extent
should result in a gradual weakening trend later tonight. Some
isolated severe threat may eventually spread east of WW 136, but
downstream watch issuance is considered unlikely at this time.
..Dean/Bunting.. 04/15/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36779930 38859824 40589642 41289634 41789560 41559500
41049478 40219515 38969626 36839830 36679878 36779930
