MD 0521 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0521
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023
Areas affected...Portions of southern LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 151252Z - 151415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will move eastward this morning
while potentially posing some threat for damaging winds. The need
for a watch remains uncertain.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of mainly elevated thunderstorms
associated with a subtle shortwave trough has persisted through the
early morning hours across central into coastal/southeast TX, and is
entering southwest LA as of 1250Z. The 12Z sounding from LCH has
steep mid-level lapse rates, and a reservoir of 3000+ MUCAPE. If
even modest daytime heating can occur ahead of this activity, the
remaining low-level cap may erode sufficiently to allow convection
to become surface based as it tracks eastward along a marine warm
front. Although both low-level and deep-layer shear are fairly
modest at the moment per recent VWP estimates from LCH, this shear
may still be sufficient for modest updraft organization. If this
convection can persist and strengthen, it may pose a threat for
mainly damaging winds across parts of southern LA. Convective
evolution and intensity with this cluster remains rather uncertain,
as does the need for a potential watch. Regardless, trends will be
closely monitored.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/15/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30189355 30759320 30899224 30669110 30019096 29599120
29589254 29829338 30189355
