MD 0534 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EAST ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023
Areas affected...portions of far east Arkansas into western
Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 152328Z - 160100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat appears to be increasing east of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0180 and a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
needed. Large hail and damaging gusts will the main threats.
DISCUSSION...Line segments with embedded supercells continue to
track east-northeastward toward the eastern fringes of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 0140, where 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear reside. Since these storms should make it east
of the watch well before sunset and associated nocturnal cooling, at
least scattered damaging gusts or instances of large hail are
possible into the evening hours, necessitating the need of a
downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
..Squitieri/Bunting.. 04/15/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33409110 34299094 35409093 36119074 36419030 36548953
36478884 36298832 35928810 35238812 34478826 33878867
33568945 33449014 33409110
