MD 0538 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023
Areas affected...Parts of south-central/southeast IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 160056Z - 160230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some damaging wind threat may spread east of WW 139 into a
larger portion of south-central/southeast Illinois. Downstream watch
issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...A bowing segment with embedded circulations that
earlier affected areas near and south of St. Louis is moving quickly
eastward toward south-central IL. Radar and satellite trends
indicate some weakening of convection within the line, as convection
moves into an environment characterized by weaker buoyancy and
stronger MLCINH. However, steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on
the 00Z ILX sounding) will help to maintain convection for awhile
this evening, and given the current organized nature of the bowing
segment, an organized damaging wind threat may spread east of WW 139
a little later this evening. Downstream watch issuance is possible
as storms spread into a larger portion of south-central/southeast
IL.
..Dean/Bunting.. 04/16/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...ILX...
LAT...LON 39828954 40098891 40008762 39658741 39148747 38988768
38898805 38788845 39268880 39578935 39828954
