MD 0542 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 141… FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0542
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023
Areas affected...Parts of southern LA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 141...
Valid 160440Z - 160645Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 141
continues.
SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated strong/damaging gusts and hail
may persist into the overnight hours. WW 141 has been locally
extended, with eventual downstream watch issuance into southeast
Louisiana more uncertain.
DISCUSSION...An uptick in storm intensity has been noted over the
last hour across southwest LA, with a stronger cell moving into
Allen Parish, and a small bowing segment evolving near the Gulf
Coast across Cameron Parish and adjacent coastal waters. An axis of
moderate MUCAPE (generally 1500-2500 J/kg) will help to maintain
this convection as it moves eastward, especially with the cluster
near the Gulf Coast, where instability and moisture will be somewhat
more favorable. Deep-layer shear is only marginally favorable for
organized convection, but given the favorable thermodynamics and
relative organization of the ongoing bowing segment, some
damaging-wind risk may spread downstream along the immediate LA Gulf
Coast overnight, with a threat of more isolated wind/hail farther
inland. In order to address these ongoing threats, WW 141 has been
extended in area and time across parts of southern LA. The need for
additional downstream watch issuance into southeast LA remains more
uncertain, with the threat becoming increasingly confined to
near-coastal regions with time.
..Dean/Bunting.. 04/16/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 30769266 30589164 29519037 29139024 28849037 28849111
28839175 28909239 29089281 29449325 30149319 30439305
30769266
