MD 0549 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0549
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023
Areas affected...Portions of south FL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 170638Z - 170845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Occasional strong/gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms
moving northeastward early this morning. Watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in convective organization has
recently been observed with thunderstorms spreading northeastward
from the Keys across south FL early this morning. This activity is
related to earlier convection that developed over western Cuba and
the FL Straits, as well as a southern-stream shortwave trough
advancing over the eastern Gulf. Even though low/mid-level flow
remains fairly modest, based on recent VWPs from KAMX there is
enough veering/strengthening of the winds with height though mid
levels to support some updraft organization. Strong inbound
velocities are noted with the convection approaching the Miami
metro, and gusty winds capable of producing isolated damage appear
possible. Still, poor lapse rates and lingering MLCIN associated
with nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer both suggest that
the strong winds observed in radar velocity data may struggle to
reach the surface, and should generally remain sub-severe.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/17/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 24938054 25418082 25858106 26228071 26368005 25818009
25408016 24938054
