MD 0059 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 20… FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0059
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2023
Areas affected...Southern Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 20...
Valid 122006Z - 122200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 20 continues.
SUMMARY...Upscale growth into an organized squall line is expected
to continue over the next 1-2 hours across southern Alabama and the
far western Florida Panhandle. However, a tornado threat will
persist with supercells ahead of the line.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar trends from KMOB and GOES IR imagery show
convection gradually intensifying along a cold front across far
southeast MS into southwest AL. This trend is expected to continue
to over the next 1-2 hours as the cold front pushes east into
southern AL. Consequently, the potential for damaging winds may
increase given 30-40 knot shear vectors in the 0-2 to 0-3 km layers
orthogonal to the line. An embedded tornado threat may accompany the
line if a segment of balanced outflow can become established and
oriented meridionally.
The relatively higher tornado threat will remain associated with
isolated convection/supercells ahead of the line. A notable
supercell, currently over Conecuh county, AL, has maintained an
organized mesocyclone over the past hour and will continue to
propagate to the east/northeast over an environment with favorable
low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s) and 0-1 km SRH near
200 m2/s2. Furthermore, supercell propagation vectors suggest this
cell will remain ahead of the line for roughly the next 1-2 hours
with relatively few storm interactions, which will aid in
maintaining the tornado potential.
..Moore.. 01/12/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30578856 31658785 31948707 31908587 31028608 30398651
30228737 30098838 30578856
