MD 0597 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR RIO GRANDE VICINITY SOUTH OF DEL RIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0597
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023
Areas affected...Rio Grande vicinity south of Del Rio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 221936Z - 222230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercells may form along the
higher terrain to the west of the Rio Grande River by 4-6 PM CDT,
and generally remain west of the river into this evening.
DISCUSSION...Initial attempts at deepening convective development
appear underway near the Serrianas Del Burro, aided by
destabilization associated with daytime heating and orographic
forcing for ascent. This is where moist southeasterly near surface
flow (including mid/upper 60s F surface dew points) appears to be
contributing to sizable mixed-layer CAPE increasing in excess of
2000 J/kg, beneath steep mid-level lapse rates.
It is possible that forcing for ascent may become enhanced by a
westerly mid-level speed maximum (around 40 kt near 500 mb), with
20-25+ kt westerly deep-layer mean flow contributing to potential
for advection of developing storms off the higher terrain toward the
Rio Grande River vicinity. However, with sufficient deep-layer
shear for supercells, and southeasterly low-level upslope flow being
maintained into this evening, stronger storms seem likely to tend to
propagate south-southeastward closer to the higher terrain, and
remain west of the river.
..Kerr/Hart.. 04/22/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
LAT...LON 29030202 29520165 29360096 28530037 27740078 27710128
28400179 29030202
