MD 0611 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 165… FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2023
Areas affected...Parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165...
Valid 242252Z - 250015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165
continues.
SUMMARY...Isolated hail and locally damaging gusts remain possible
this evening, but a continued gradual weakening trend is expected
with time.
DISCUSSION...Scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing this evening
across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula. Widespread
convection has depleted instability to some extent, but MLCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg (greater across south FL where somewhat warmer
temperatures persist) remains in place this evening, and moderate
deep-layer shear will support occasional storm organization.
However, very weak low-level flow/shear will continue to result in
outflow-dominant storms that are generally limited in longevity.
Additional storm development will be possible through the evening as
a low-amplitude shortwave trough (the remnant of an earlier MCS
across the Gulf of Mexico) moves across the central FL Peninsula,
but gradually decreasing instability with time should continue to
limit the overall severe threat.
Some isolated hail and strong gust threat may persist across WW 165
and areas just south of the watch past the 00Z expiration time, but
with the severe threat expected to remain limited in magnitude,
additional watch issuance is not anticipated.
..Dean/Grams.. 04/24/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 26117961 25748008 25708057 25698097 25768119 26138123
26508159 26988178 28188180 28538118 28758067 28338023
26657957 26117961
