MD 0613 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0613
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023
Areas affected...Southern High Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 252001Z - 252200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Widely scattered storms may produce isolated large hail
and damaging winds. Limited moisture/buoyancy should keep storm
intensity marginal. A watch appears unlikely at this time.
DISCUSSION...As the upper-level trough approaches the southern High
Plains this afternoon, convection along a surface trough/developing
dryline has continued to slowly deepen. Moisture is very limited
within the region as dewpoints are in the upper 30s F to mid 40s F.
Lapse rates at low/mid-levels are steep enough to support isolated
large hail and damaging winds despite the modest MLCAPE (near 500
J/kg). Storm intensity is expected to remain marginal until this
activity encounters greater low-level moisture to the east. A watch
is not currently expected.
..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/25/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34230377 37030429 37610401 37690312 36170214 35180196
34400256 34030325 34230377
