MD 0614 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA…WESTERN NORTH TEXAS…PARTS OF SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023
Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma...western North Texas...Parts of
South Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 252043Z - 252245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Observational trends in southwest Oklahoma into parts of
the South Plains suggest increased confidence in storm development
this afternoon. Large/very-large hail and damaging winds would be
the primary threats. A watch is possible depending on convective
trends over the next two hours.
DISCUSSION...While cloud cover has been present much of the day in
the western North Texas vicinity, some erosion has occurred
along/near the warm front and near the Snyder, TX vicinity this
afternoon. This has allowed temperatures to warm more than guidance
had been suggesting. Recent visible satellite trends in southwest
Oklahoma show deepening cumulus along the warm front near Altus.
With some high resolution guidance (including the WoFS) indicating
potential storm development, there is increased confidence in the
potential for a supercell or two to develop. MLCAPE nearing 1000
J/kg and effective shear around 40 kts will support a threat for
large/very-large hail as well as damaging wind gusts.
Farther south, near Snyder, there is less confidence in development.
However, temperatures will continue to warm and the West Texas
Mesonet data available shows convergence along the differential
heating boundary. A similar threat for large/very-large hail and
damaging winds would exist here as well. Additional supercells are
also possible as the dryline sharpens farther to the west.
The current environment would suggest the tornado threat would
remain relatively low this afternoon. Should discrete activity be
sustained into early evening, some increase in tornado potential
would occur with the strengthening of the low-level jet.
A watch is possible this afternoon depending on convective trends
over the next 1-2 hours.
..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/25/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 32610116 33130144 33860165 34890151 35180062 35150002
35039925 34769885 33939871 32409991 32290042 32330076
32610116
