MD 0618 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH TX INTO FAR SOUTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023
Areas affected...North TX into far southern OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260418Z - 260615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible overnight. Watch issuance is
considered unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A strengthening low-level jet (as noted on recent KDYX
and KFWD VWPs) is likely contributing to a recent increase in
elevated convection across north-central TX. Meanwhile, a cluster of
elevated convection associated with the remnant of an earlier
long-lived supercell is moving eastward across western north TX.
While increasing MLCINH will tend to suppress the redevelopment of
surface-based convection, MUCAPE of greater than 1000 J/kg and
effective shear of 40-50 kt will support some modestly organized
elevated storms. A tendency for storm clustering may limit the
threat to some extent (compared to more discrete development), but
isolated hail will be possible with the strongest storms overnight.
With the magnitude and coverage of this threat expected to remain
relatively limited, watch issuance is considered unlikely at this
time.
..Dean/Grams.. 04/26/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32169513 32029660 33099966 33479980 33899975 34469939
34209770 33719582 33629550 33429503 32729483 32169513
