MD 0619 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0619
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023
Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260450Z - 260645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some increase in storm coverage and intensity is possible
overnight, with a threat of isolated hail and strong gusts.
DISCUSSION...Weak convection is ongoing late this evening across
parts of the TX Panhandle, though the influence of earlier intense
storms has reduced available instability across the area. However, a
rather strong southeasterly low-level jet (as noted on the KAMA and
KLBB VWPs) will support an increase in low-level moisture and MUCAPE
overnight, with MUCAPE potentially increasing to near or above 1000
J/kg, especially across the southern Panhandle into the south
Plains. Increasing large-scale ascent associated with a
mid/upper-level cyclone over the southern Rockies will support an
increase in storm coverage overnight, with deep-layer shear
remaining favorable for modestly organized storms. One or more
clusters and/or a supercell or two may evolve overnight, posing some
threat for isolated hail and strong gusts.
With convection currently expected to be mixed-mode and somewhat
elevated, the threat for both severe hail and wind may be limited to
some extent. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, but
will be reevaluated based on short-term trends regarding low-level
moisture and instability recovery.
..Dean/Grams.. 04/26/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34850055 33530102 33350202 33500249 34520271 36050255
36260155 36200078 34850055
