MD 0630 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 169… FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023
Areas affected...parts of central Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 169...
Valid 262340Z - 270145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 169 continues.
SUMMARY...Large, damaging hail, with some potential for tornadoes,
will continue with a supercell or two east-southeast of Waco through
8-9 PM CDT, while the risk for damaging winds perhaps becomes more
prominent with storms now approaching Waco from the west.
DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in vigorous convective development
continues northwest of Waco, toward the Brownwood area, increasingly
above a southward advancing cold front, with convection also
increasing ahead of this activity, above outflow generated by a
sustained discrete supercell now propagating east of Waco. The
discrete supercell is still being supported by a focused area of
enhanced low-level warm advection along a warm frontal zone, and may
be maintained with an additional supercell or two possible south
through southeast of the Corsicana vicinity through 01-02Z.
Otherwise, stronger convective development to the west will probably
continue to consolidate and organize into early evening, aided by
moderate east-southeasterly inflow characterized by large CAPE, in
the presence of strong deep-layer shear. The large, damaging hail
threat may begin to subside, but the risk for strong surface gusts
seems likely to increase.
..Kerr.. 04/26/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...
LAT...LON 32059749 32129705 31539583 31049617 31239714 31399810
31729768 32059749
