SPC MD 633

MD 0633 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES…SW KS


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES...SW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 301958Z - 302100Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
SW KS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. A WW WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 21Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW CB ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
NERN NM SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
1 TO 2 HOURS. SOME CIN REMAINS OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WHILE AREAS FARTHER S ARE UNCAPPED. CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
CURRENT SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MLCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 1500 J/KG OVER THE NRN TX AND OK PANHANDLES TO 2500 J/KG OVER
AREAS FARTHER S /WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 80S/. BEST DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE MID-LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

AS A RESULT OF THIS INCREASED FLOW AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PORTIONS THE NRN
TX PANHANDLE APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED IN EARLIER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THIS BOUNDARY MAY STILL EXIST AND COULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCED
TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...MARGINAL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AOB 40 KTS/
AND MOSTLY WEAK/VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. FARTHER S...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXISTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.

..MOSIER.. 04/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   33160128 33040192 33070263 33340296 36770294 37640193
            37770125 37620089 37360066 34850107 33160128

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