SPC MD 635

MD 0635 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210… FOR PORTIONS SWRN/W-CENTRAL KS…NWRN OK.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/W-CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210...

VALID 302219Z - 302315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210
CONTINUES.

INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS FCST ACROSS THIS AREA DURING
REMAINDER LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND SVR GUSTS.  TORNADO
POTENTIAL ALSO MAY BE MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS SWRN KS INVOF FRONTAL
ZONE DESCRIBED BELOW...AND EVENTUALLY ERN PANHANDLES WITH CONVECTION
MOVING EWD FROM GESTATION ZONE NEAR DRYLINE.  ADDITIONAL WW IS
LIKELY OVER SOME AREAS NE AND E OF WW 210.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE OVER SERN CO WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ESEWD OVER SWRN KS AND NEAR CENTRAL PORTIONS KS/OK BORDER.
 VIS IMAGERY SHOWS DISTINCTIVE CHANGE IN LOW-CLOUD CHARACTER FROM
SW-NE ACROSS WRN/NRN OK.  THIS SIGNIFIED TRANSITION ZONE WHERE
WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IS MOVING NWD AND
WILL MERGE WITH WARM-FRONTAL ZONE.  THESE BOUNDARIES BLEND TOGETHER
ATTM INVOF INFLECTION POINT OF WARM FRONT...NEAR DDC...AND THIS
MERGER AREA WILL PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION WITH TIME.
 LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THAT INFLECTION...WITH EFFECTIVE
SRH 200-300 J/KG AND 50-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES DERIVED FROM
FCST SOUNDINGS AND VWP DATA.  EVEN N OF FRONT...MODIFIED RAOBS AND
FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INFLOW PARCELS ARE BECOMING SFC-BASED FOR
TEMPS LOW-MID 70S F AND UPPER-50S DEW POINTS...YIELDING MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG OVER W-CENTRAL KS.  BUOYANCY GETS SUBSTANTIALLY
LARGER FARTHER S ACROSS NERN PORTIONS WW 210 INTO NWRN OK...WITH SFC
TEMPS NEAR 80 AND DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S CONTRIBUTING TO
MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG.  LOW-LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION INTO DISCUSSION
AREA SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AMIDST INSOLATION
THAT REMAINS.

..EDWARDS.. 04/30/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   37730109 38340100 38660076 38970027 38999972 38909924
            38789874 38419848 38079828 37749813 37329811 37029811
            36619836 36269860 35909903 35069989 35100102 37730109

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