MD 0637 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 212… FOR PORTIONS NRN OK…SRN KS…SWRN MO.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN OK...SRN KS...SWRN MO.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...
VALID 302355Z - 010200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 212 CONTINUES.
RAPID DEVELOPMENT/GROWTH OF SUPERCELLS HAS OCCURRED INVOF WARM
FRONTAL ZONE OVER SWRN KS AND EXTREME NWRN OK...WITH FIVE
WELL-DEFINED SRM COUPLETS EVIDENT OVER PORTIONS OF
COMANCHE/BARBER/KIOWA/EDWARDS COUNTIES KS AS OF 2345Z. TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY EWD ACROSS CORRIDOR FROM
PAWNEE/STAFFORD COUNTIES KS TO WOODS/ALFALFA COUNTIES OK...IN
HELICITY/VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT OF WARM-FRONTAL ZONE.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED WARM FRONT FROM EXTREME NERN OK
WNWWD...PASSING OBLIQUELY ACROSS KS/OK BORDER INVOF I-35 TO NW
P28...WHERE IT BECOMES LOST IN GROWING AREA OF SVR TSTMS. WARM
FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING NWD OVER MORE OF EXTREME SRN KS.
SUPERCELL THREAT MAY EXTEND JUST E OF WW ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL
KS AND N-CENTRAL OK...WITH LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO
DAMAGING WIND. DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED MCS WITH SUBSTANTIAL BOWING
CHARACTERISTICS AND SVR WIND SWATH APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE AS
SUPERCELLS AGGREGATE TOGETHER OVER SRN KS. ANY SUCH COMPLEX WOULD
MOVE EWD TO ESEWD...FOLLOWING INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACCOMPANYING
WARM-FRONTAL ZONE...AND ENHANCED BY NEARLY ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT OF
MIDLEVEL WINDS AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS ALOFT WITH RESPECT TO LIKELY
CONVECTIVE ALIGNMENT. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES MINOR BUT
POTENTIALLY INFLUENTIAL UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING EWD ACROSS
CAO/SPD AREA...WHICH SHOULD TRACK ENEWD ACROSS SWRN KS IN IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF SWRN KS/NWRN OK CONVECTION. IN LOW LEVELS...FAVORABLE WAA
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ACCOMPANY INCREASING LLJ AFTER
00Z...ENLARGING HODOGRAPHS AND ALSO BOOSTING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW
ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER.
..EDWARDS.. 04/30/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36349813 36609879 37339978 38029981 38419845 38179485
37709415 36479467 36259668 36349813
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0637.html
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