MD 0638 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174… FOR CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023
Areas affected...central portion of the FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174...
Valid 271756Z - 272000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 174
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for large to very large hail (1-3 inches in
diameter) and damaging gusts will likely accompany a supercell as it
moves east-northeast across the central part of the FL Panhandle
through 3-4pm EDT. A brief tornado is possible.
DISCUSSION...A long-lived discrete supercell has recently moved
ashore into the greater Panama City, FL vicinity from the shelf
waters in a favorable environment for organized storms. The KEVX
VAD data shows a favorable hodograph for storm-scale rotation but
KTLH 88D VAD data is noticeably weaker in 2-4 km flow (10 kt
weaker). Nonetheless, moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE)
with speed shear in the mid to upper levels, are combining to
support an environment favorable for large to very large hail.
Damaging gusts may also occur with with the precip-laden RFD as the
storm moves east-northeast over the next several hours.
..Smith.. 04/27/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 30398579 30628471 30548450 30358458 30178577 30198593
30398579
