MD 0641 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 212…214…215… FOR PORTIONS OK…SERN KS…SWRN MO…SMALL PART OF NW TX.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...SMALL PART OF NW
TX.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 212...214...215...
VALID 010428Z - 010600Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
212...214...215...CONTINUES.
SUPERCELLS EARLIER OVER KS/OK BORDER REGION HAVE EVOLVED INTO
WELL-DEFINED BOW ECHO WITH INTERMITTENT SPIRAL BANDS AND
INTENSE/EMBEDDED BOOKEND VORTEX. THAT VORTEX WAS CENTERED OVER KAY
COUNTY AS OF 4Z. ADDITIONAL VORTICES MAY DEVELOP AND GROW UPSCALE
FARTHER SE ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL...IN STORM-RELATIVE
SENSE...AS EARLIER CIRCULATIONS ARE SHED BACK INTO COLD POOL. THESE
MAY POSE TORNADO RISK...WHILE LARGER-SCALE COMPLEX OFFERS ORGANIZED
CHANNEL OF DAMAGING WIND FOR PORTIONS OSAGE/PAWNEE COUNTIES AND
EVENTUALLY AREAS BETWEEN TUL-BVO.
EARLIER FRONT HAS BEEN RENDERED QUASISTATIONARY BY OUTFLOW FROM
TSTMS TO ITS N...AND EXTENDS FROM NRN PORTION OF THIS COMPLEX EWD
OVER EXTREME NERN OK. PRIND BOWING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BAROCLINIC CORRIDOR AND ADJOINING PARTS OF WARM SECTOR FOR FORWARD
PROPAGATION INTO MOST FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. ISOLATED SVR GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL ALSO MAY OCCUR WITH CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NERN OK AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS SERN KS/SWRN MO. MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINING FROM
OSAGE/WASHINGTON COUNTIES SWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK. MLCINH INCREASES
AND CAPE DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT OVER SRN OK BECAUSE OF DRIER DEW
POINTS THAN FARTHER N...WHICH MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF SECONDARY TSTM COMPLEX OVER SWRN OK. AS OF
415Z...EXPANSIVE GUST FRONT ARCS SWD THEN SWD OFF ERN LIMB OF THAT
COMPLEX THAT IS MOVING THROUGH CHK AREA...AND TSTMS FARTHER SW ARE
BEHIND THAT GUST FRONT. STILL...SWRN/CENTRAL OK CONVECTION MAY
CONTINUE TO POSE RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS. RESIDUAL POCKET OF
RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED LOW-LEVEL AIR ALSO RESIDES OVER PORTIONS
CENTRAL/NERN OK...WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
GUST POTENTIAL WITH CONVECTION BUILDING OVER ROGER MILLS COUNTY.
..EDWARDS.. 05/01/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 34459964 35679990 36229811 36939821 37419654 38219627
37859443 37009415 36379462 35599576 34179698 34089840
33829841 33889927 34459964
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0641.html
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