MD 0649 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OHIO…FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY…WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA…FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA…EXTREME NORTHEAST TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Areas affected...portions of far southeast Ohio...far eastern
Kentucky...western West Virginia...far western Virginia...extreme
northeast Tennessee
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281920Z - 282045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts/instances of hail may accompany
the stronger storms this afternoon. The severe threat should remain
isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Visible Satellite and MRMS mosaic radar data show a
gradual increase in the intensity and coverage of low-topped
thunderstorms over the eastern OH Valley into the central
Appalachians. Adequate surface heating to the south and west of a
wedge of cool air over the central Appalachians (and points north)
is contributing to marginal buoyancy (over 500 J/kg MLCAPE per 18Z
mesoanalysis). Given the presence of modest speed shear in the
850-500 mb layer, a few of the stronger storms may become organized
and intense enough to produce a couple instances of damaging gusts
or hail in areas of locally greater heating/buoyancy. Since the
overall severe threat is expected to remain isolated, a WW issuance
is not expected.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/28/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...
LAT...LON 37048293 38278358 39128340 39768283 39838230 39348152
38648127 37618135 36658134 36388156 36348236 37048293
